New Prop 8 Poll

No On Prop 8

A new poll is out today and is showing that same-sex marriage in California may be in trouble.

According to the poll, likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure’s opponents.

The only demographic group to significantly change their views during this period were younger voters — considered the hardest to poll and the most unpredictable voters — who now support the measure after previously opposing it.

It should be noted that the poll, conducted statewide Oct. 4 and 5 among 670 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent, and the pollster continued to label the race too close to call — just as it did eleven days ago.

Andrew Sullivan says it, and I agree.  We cannot afford to get complacent on this issue.  It is not a certainty that this ballot measure will go down to defeat.

What concerns me most is that the biggest shift appears to be with young voters.  Those are people who are usually a bit more socially liberal, and more apt to support same-sex marriage.  For them to be shifting, especially this early, concerns me a lot.

Support for ballot measures in California generally tends to wane as the campaign moves closer to Election Day.  This one seems to be moving the other way, even though the pollster calls it too close to call.

It’s a matter of basic fairness.  Whether the California Supreme Court was correct in its legal reasoning in this case, I can’t say.  I’m not a lawyer.  But the fact remains that same-sex marriage is not about special rights.  It’s about equal rights, and equal responsibility.  It’s not about making churches peform marriages they consider to be anathema to their religious tenets.  It’s about civil marriage.  It’s about societal recognition of a stable, long-term relationship that the state encourages in heterosexual relationships and discourages (in many cases) in homosexual relationships. 

There isn’t a whit of difference between a gay or lesbian couple and a heterosexual couple (except the obvious).  They all want the same things for their families — secure, stable homes where their children — if the couple has any — are loved and grow up to be productive members of society.  That’s it.  It’s about equality.

Please, on November 4, Vote NO on Proposition 8 in California.